2008 US Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Post your electoral vote prediction in here

Use this:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

I say: Barack Obama 371 - John McCain 167

Obama gets all the Kerry States, plus Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and one of Montana and North Dakota. I think he can win both of those, but he's an underdog in each.

I don't think he'll be able to win in Indiana or Missouri, but if he does then it will likely be a landslide. Of course, my prediction is a landslide as well, so...

Going out on a limb with the Georgia prediction, but I feel like the ground game that Obama has there is going to carry him to victory. Same with North Carolina, but NC is a much less controversial prediction.

As far as Montana and North Dakota go, I know the Montana GOP is in horrible shape, and the Dems are kicking ass. I also know that ND is heavily influenced by Minnesota in some aspects, and Montana in other. Wedged in between a big Obama state, and a tossup like Montana might push ND to Obama.

I also think that Arizona is a true tossup this year and that Obama could take McCain's home state. I didn't predict it here, but I think it's only very slightly favored for McCain.

I am going to be way more modest in my prediction. You have to guess that things will change even a little bit at the polls, I say Obama wins all the Kerry states. There is a general sense among pundits that things will get real tight....so here we go my prediction

Obama: 318
McCain: 220

Obama Takes: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada
Obama Narrowly loses: Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Montana, and Missouri

Mccain, falls short by not winning every state Bush won that was a toss-up...More importantly Virginia and Florida....

Also Democratic fanboys are freaking out right now, they are looking for any reason that will negate a great victory for Obama, I am only suspicious of the truthfulness of the polls, however I am almost certainly confident Obama wins.

We shall see

I'm kinda surprised that you picked Florida to go Blue, but not Ohio or North Carolina. Very interesting. I don't think that's likely, but I suppose all of them are swing states this year.

EDIT: Do you also have Iowa going to Obama? You didn't list it, but Kerry didn't take it in 2004.

There's an interesting twist in Montana, Ron Paul is on the ballot. The Constitution Party of Montana, which is disaffected from the national party, put him up as their candidate and they have ballot access due to the presence of Rick Jore in the State legislature.

Paul is polling at 4% and could well cost McCain the state.

When do the results come out?

It depends. We might know in 24 hours. It might be a little longer than that.

Obama wins: Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Scrantonland, Mexico Lite and the Red Star State

McCain wins: Florida, Norf Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Arizona, Montana, Norf Dakota and Georgia

Obama 311, McCain 227

EDIT: to put it in a different format: Obama wins Kerry's states plus Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa.

ShiftyPowers;2588072 said:

I'm kinda surprised that you picked Florida to go Blue, but not Ohio or North Carolina. Very interesting. I don't think that's likely, but I suppose all of them are swing states this year.

EDIT: Do you also have Iowa going to Obama? You didn't list it, but Kerry didn't take it in 2004.

Click to expand...

Yes Iowa to Obama as well...I forgot to mention

My reasoning behind Ohio is the tightening there and the fact that the state has a history of narrowly going republican....Also North Carolina is a dead heat right now; a virtual tie in the polls, the last one taken anyway...So in those circumstances I say it leans McCains way....My family lives in Florida, so that is where I am getting my info from, they tell me the movement for Obama is very significant across the state and specially minorities who never really voted much in the past

KingPaulV;2588079 said:

Yes Iowa to Obama as well...I forgot to mention

My reasoning behind Ohio is the tightening there and the fact that the state has a history of narrowly going republican....Also North Carolina is a dead heat right now; a virtual tie in the polls, the last one taken anyway...So in those circumstances I say it leans McCains way....My family lives in Florida, so that is where I am getting my info from, they tell me the movement for Obama is very significant across the state and specially minorities who never really voted much in the past

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Minorities and Early Voting are the reasons why I think NC will go to Obama. Ditto for Georgia.

I think NC is going to Obama, it was electric when he was here. You didn't even know when McCain was here. Well, unless one of Palin's supporters punched you.

Obama won Dixville Notch 15-6.

For those who don't know, two tiny towns in New Hampshire vote at midnight. Obviously they're less than a drop in the bucket of the whole thing, but it's very traditional.

I don't know about you guys, but I only clicked on the tossup states, and I have Obama winning Montana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida with McCain taking North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana.

Final electoral score:

Obama: 356
McPalin-Bush 3.0: 182

Britain will regain it's empire over the next 4 years, that's my prediction

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lol. How long does it usually take for the votes to be counted by a state?

It depends! Just watch TV tonight.

bybuti;2588275 said:

Voting method is different in different countrys, right ?? (I mean electronic and these stuffs)

I saw today, it took around 20 mins to Obama to vote (pretty long I guess)

btw, I won't speak for America but here 90% of my professors voted for Obama.

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LOL 20 MINUTES!? It took me an hour to vote today, and I'm hearing reports of 3 hours in some areas. This evening it's going to probably touch 5 hours in line for some people.

bybuti;2588278 said:

haha

really ??

yeah but not if you're speaking for waiting in line and these stuffs, I was talking for the process inside. From you take your paper or whatever till you 'VOTE'. (this took 20 mins to Obama)

btw, I forgot to say that I adore name IOWA haha

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Some places have around 30-40 offices up for election today.

There's no way it took Obama 20 minutes to actually vote. Maybe if he was chatting and shaking hands the whole time. Took me about 3 minutes, which should be common for everyone outside California.

ShiftyPowers;2588280 said:

There's no way it took Obama 20 minutes to actually vote. Maybe if he was chatting and shaking hands the whole time. Took me about 3 minutes, which should be common for everyone outside California.

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Heh, took me 10.