Right, been looking forward to today, I love elections.
First thing to say is that even as a right-winger myself I think Obama deserves re-election, whilst he has not lived up to much expectation and many of his own promises he has been severely restricted by limitations on the power of the presidency and has performed extremely well in those areas where the president does have clear power (ie military and immediate foreign policy response and disaster reaction).
Second thing to say is that no matter what anyone tells you Romney IS a good candidate and would NOT be dangerous for America. Obama has had a relatively bad campaign and Romney a very good one, I dont think anyone thought he was capable of such a strong campaign and debate performance to be honest, he has proved a lot of people wrong and should be proud of himself. He has pushed an election which republicans a few months ago considered a certain loss (cf the fact that none of the serious republican hopefuls even thought about running) into a very close thing.
I still think Obama will win. If Romney wants to win, he first has to secure the narrow republican states like NC and Arizona, which he should do even though Arizona is a challenge due to hispanic population and the fact that election was Arizona main man John McCain, not northern mormon Romney. I think he will take Florida, they have had such an economic battering and there are so many rich old jews there. Then he has to EITHER take the swing states Iowa, Ohio and Colorado OR pull his "home" marginals away from Obama (Michigan, Ryan's Wisconsin, his holiday home New Hampshire). I dont think he will do the latter as the auto industry bailout of Obama should trump his michigan credentials, and Ryan has fizzled out somewhat. The former, despite such a strong performance he will actually need a pretty massive swing to take all those three, and I dont think he can get it. Colorado is on the cards, but Ohio I think will go blue.
It's going to be an entertaining night, anyway.
