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EURO 2016 Draft :: Statistical Analysis

Sir Didier Drogba

Head Official
Nothing to do with the draft par se, but I was curious to see which nationalities were the most popular with drafters, whether that might form an indicator of which teams we feel will do well and how this will rank up against the bookmaker's odds.

I've excluded players who were picked later as replacements as they are not representative of who we think will do best.

In the very first round 3 Germans were picked, 2 French, 2 Belgian, 1 Portuguese, 1 Swede, 1 Welsh and 1 Pole were picked, but of course many superstars are the only star of their nation.

In the first four rounds, when one can assume most of the very best players were picked:

Germany: 10
France: 8
Spain: 8
Belgium: 7
Croatia: 3
England: 3
Italy: 3
Austria: 1
Portugal: 1
Poland: 1
Sweden: 1
Wales: 1

Not surprising that Germany, France, Spain and Belgium race out front. Interesting that it would appear 10 of 11 predicted starting Germans were picked in the first four rounds (even though some were so far mistakes, eg Can) suggesting we both think they will go far and their talent is distributed across the squad. I am surprised how few England players were picked despite optimism on the forums.

Now looking at the first 11 rounds:

France: 14
Germany: 14
England: 14
Spain: 14
Belgium: 13
Italy: 12
Portugal: 10
Croatia: 8
Austria: 7
Switzerland: 6
Poland: 4
Sweden: 3
Wales: 3
Turkey: 2
Ukraine: 2
Czech: 1
Iceland: 1
Russia: 1
Slovakia: 1

Albania, Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Romania: 0

Interesting how England shoot up as we all pick our 'non-star' starters, to be one of only 6 teams to have more than 11 players picks, ie more picks than feasible starters. 10 pick from Portugal also surprising given that they are often perceived as reliant on key players and weak elsewhere. Croatia, Austria and Switzerland relatively high suggests them as possible dark horse teams - particularly surprised to see 8 picks from Croatia and 7 from Austria, did not realise that had quite so many good players, especially compared to only 4 from Poland and 2 each from Ukraine and Turkey whom all appear to be decent teams. I am also surprised Sweden has as many as three.
 

Sir Didier Drogba

Head Official
Finally, across all 18 rounds:

(including replacements this time)

France: 21
Portugal: 21
England: 20
Germany: 19
Spain: 19
Italy: 17
Belgium: 16
Austria: 11
Croatia: 11
Switzerland: 10
Poland: 7
Turkey: 7
Wales: 7
Romania: 5
Ukraine: 5
Russia: 4
Sweden: 4
Czech: 3
Albania: 2
Slovakia: 2
Hungary: 1
Iceland: 1

Northern Ireland: 0
 

Sir Didier Drogba

Head Official
Amazingly the joint most picks are from Portugal, who have almost their entire squad picked. Poor old N Ireland the only nation without a single pick.
 

MaSsiVe

Manager
Staff member
Moderator
Portugal is winning this Cup so it's natural that many players were picked. Only surprised there aren't more players in the starting 11s, like the keeper or even Quaresma who was freakin' amazing in our latest friendlies. Meanwhile got injured in training so he might not play :(

Sweden is also going through I assume, so I actually expected more players to be picked from them. Few resounding names but always a strong team.

Poland are keen to have a good run and also Ireland could've had a few more picks, even if they are underdogs in their group.

I think people made good picks overall, this is kind of a longevity contest so now it's a matter of having good ratings with the starters and hope for some luck with subs.
 

MaSsiVe

Manager
Staff member
Moderator
MaSsiVe;3937927 said:
Portugal is winning this Cup so it's natural that many players were picked. Only surprised there aren't more players in the starting 11s, like the keeper or even Quaresma who was freakin' amazing in our latest friendlies.

Just sayin' (H)
 


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