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*** Awards Season ***
- Thread starter Hakeem
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The SAG Best Ensemble winner is a big Oscar winner indicator.
From these 5 nominated ensembles, Hairspray, American Gangster and 3:10 To Yuma wont make it to the Oscars, so it'll be between Into The Wild and No Country for Old Man.
I'm going to predict the Oscar winner right now to be Into The Wild
[even though it got no love from the Globes (same happened to Crash anyway)]
S
Sir Calumn
Guest
I really regret that I havent seen Into the Wild yet, but it sounds like a definate oscar contender. However, I think The Assassination of Jesse James still has to be up there aswell as No Country for Old Men.
Surprised but quite pleased to see Mortensan getting a best actor nomination. Ruby Dee is another big surprise, and a bit disappointing. I wonder if those will be reflected in the oscars. Disappointed that there's absolutely no recognition for Control.
Has anyone heard anything about a movie called The Great Debaters? I know absolutely nothing about it and hadnt heard of it til I saw an ad in the paper. It stars Washington and Whittaker (great pairing) but I dont know what it's about or anything. Can anyone enlighten me?
Surprised but quite pleased to see Mortensan getting a best actor nomination. Ruby Dee is another big surprise, and a bit disappointing. I wonder if those will be reflected in the oscars. Disappointed that there's absolutely no recognition for Control.
Has anyone heard anything about a movie called The Great Debaters? I know absolutely nothing about it and hadnt heard of it til I saw an ad in the paper. It stars Washington and Whittaker (great pairing) but I dont know what it's about or anything. Can anyone enlighten me?
yeah, The Great Debaters is also directed by Denzel. not really sure what its about either.
and I agree about The Assassination of Jesse James, but it's been overlooked by everybody so far and its not going to change at this point Im afraid
Control wont get any love in the US. it'll fair better in the BAFTAs
and I agree about The Assassination of Jesse James, but it's been overlooked by everybody so far and its not going to change at this point Im afraid
Control wont get any love in the US. it'll fair better in the BAFTAs
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Sir Calumn
Guest
Sounds like pretty standard fair to me............ though I'll still go see it for Denzel and Forest.
Very disappointed about Assassination of JJ - got an AMAZING critical reception over here, and in the US as far as I know, but despite that didnt get much of an audience, much time in the cinemas or much awards attention.
I still think Control may pick up a couple of oscar noms though. In my opinion it should be right up there for best picture, and Riley's performance as Curtis is very close to the standard of Phoenix as Cash or Foxx as Ray Charles. Damn racist academy
Also please allow me to take back what I said a little bit about not looking forward to Charlie Wilson's War - just saw the trailer today and it looked REALLY good and really appealed to me. It's right back on my must see list.
Saw the Sweeney Todd trailer today also and it looked pretty good. Likewise the new Rambo movie.
Very disappointed about Assassination of JJ - got an AMAZING critical reception over here, and in the US as far as I know, but despite that didnt get much of an audience, much time in the cinemas or much awards attention.
I still think Control may pick up a couple of oscar noms though. In my opinion it should be right up there for best picture, and Riley's performance as Curtis is very close to the standard of Phoenix as Cash or Foxx as Ray Charles. Damn racist academy
Also please allow me to take back what I said a little bit about not looking forward to Charlie Wilson's War - just saw the trailer today and it looked REALLY good and really appealed to me. It's right back on my must see list.
Saw the Sweeney Todd trailer today also and it looked pretty good. Likewise the new Rambo movie.
watched The Great Debaters last night, it's a like a Disney movie but with communism and racism, including black people getting hung and burnt alive.
Denzel and Forest are supporting players so while they do great, its not a big part of the movie (especially Forest who gets only 2 or 3 good scenes).
it's good, but not award worthy
Denzel and Forest are supporting players so while they do great, its not a big part of the movie (especially Forest who gets only 2 or 3 good scenes).
it's good, but not award worthy
just watched Before The Devil Knows You're Dead, Sydney Lumet's riveting story about a bank robbery gone wrong with Philip Seymor Hoffman, Ethan Hawke, Albert Finney and Marisa Tomei (who's naked in like 4 different scenes). the movie is great, and I dont know who the editor is but what they did here but works great, going back and forth in the story from each of the main character's point of view. not groundbreaking, but very entertaining
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Sir Calumn
Guest
Another one I'm very much looking forward to.
Just look at Sidney Lumet's pedigree - The Verdict, Serpico, Network, The Pawnbroker, Dog Day Afternoon, Deadly Affair etc etc - a remarkable catalogue of work. I have always been amazed that he is so consistantly underrated and neglected in discussions of the greatest American directors. I would say he's almost up there with Frank, Brian and Marty.
Just look at Sidney Lumet's pedigree - The Verdict, Serpico, Network, The Pawnbroker, Dog Day Afternoon, Deadly Affair etc etc - a remarkable catalogue of work. I have always been amazed that he is so consistantly underrated and neglected in discussions of the greatest American directors. I would say he's almost up there with Frank, Brian and Marty.
Yep......and not to mention.......
12 angry men
faile safe
the fugitive.....criminally underrated
the hill
prince of the city
murder on the orient express
family business.....highly underrated
running on empty.....another highly underrated flick
There's probably 4-6 best picture/director deserving flicks in between those two lists that we've made and I think(??) that he's got none, right? They gave 'em one of those useless life time achievement awards recently to acknowledge their guilt, but that doesn't really acquit them of their criminal neglect of his masterful career, does it?
He's worked with the best, gotten their best out of 'em consistently, adapted some of the best plays/novels into phenomenal pieces of cinema, so I just don't understand why he wasn't celebrated as much as some of his contemporaries. I mean, don't get me wrong. His works have usually been critically acclaimed and he's the darling of just about every film school's curriculum, but when it comes to awards, he always seems to get shunned.
Just onne of those cats who'll be better appreciated when he's gone, I suppose.
12 angry men
faile safe
the fugitive.....criminally underrated
the hill
prince of the city
murder on the orient express
family business.....highly underrated
running on empty.....another highly underrated flick
There's probably 4-6 best picture/director deserving flicks in between those two lists that we've made and I think(??) that he's got none, right? They gave 'em one of those useless life time achievement awards recently to acknowledge their guilt, but that doesn't really acquit them of their criminal neglect of his masterful career, does it?
He's worked with the best, gotten their best out of 'em consistently, adapted some of the best plays/novels into phenomenal pieces of cinema, so I just don't understand why he wasn't celebrated as much as some of his contemporaries. I mean, don't get me wrong. His works have usually been critically acclaimed and he's the darling of just about every film school's curriculum, but when it comes to awards, he always seems to get shunned.
Just onne of those cats who'll be better appreciated when he's gone, I suppose.
S
Sir Calumn
Guest
Oh yeah, how could I forget 12 Angry Men, one of the all time great films. An undisputable masterpiece.
And I didnt even know he directed The Fugitive, that film has some real gold in it.
Really quite amazing that he seems to be almost universally passed over by the academy, the critics and the studios.
And I didnt even know he directed The Fugitive, that film has some real gold in it.
Really quite amazing that he seems to be almost universally passed over by the academy, the critics and the studios.
PTA, The Coens, Sean Penn, Tony Gilroy (for Michael Clayton) and Julian Schnabel (for The Diving Bell And The Butterfly) have been nominated by the Directors Guild of America for Best Director of the year. this is a great precursor to the Oscars and adds to my prediction that Into The Wild will win the oscar for best pic with Penn being nominated
Oscars 2008 nominations will be announced this Tuesday @ 5:30am PT (8:30 ET, 9:30 my time 
).
here are my predictions in the big categories:
Best Picture:
a- Atonement
b- Into the Wild
c- Michael Clayton
d- No Country for Old Men
e- There Will Be Blood
Alternative: Juno instead of Atonement or Into The Wild.
Leaving Juno out of the top 5 because I think its too small. Little Miss Sunshine was too last year but it was bigger than this one. Im probably wrong though. And Diving Bell and The Butterfly which has everybody in love but its foreign and I dont think it'll make it. Sweeney Todd has a very small chance too btu wont make it. And everybody is saying that Atonement is out of the race but I really dont think so. It has all the right ingredients except for the weird lack of SAG support or an Eddie (the very important Editing group) nom. Still, I think it's in.
Best Director:
a- Joe Wright, Atonement
b- Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
c- Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
d- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
e- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Alternative: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton instead of Joe Wright.
Gilroy is out of the top 5 because he's new. And Diving Bell has to show up somewhere (its not eligible for Best Foreign), so Schnabel will take Gilroy's place. The Academy has never supported Tim Burton so he wont make it.
Best Actor:
a- Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
b- Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
c- George Clooney, Michael Clayton
d- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
e- Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Alternative: Mathieu Amalric, Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Amalric is new, but he could get in if the Academy does show tons of love to Diving Bell. Denzel Washington could be in for American Gang, or Frank Langella for Starting out in the Evening. There's also James McAvoy for Atonement but the SAG didnt go for him and the Academy ignored him last year for Last King Of Scotland so I wouldnt count on him now either.
Best Actress:
a- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
b- Ellen Page, Juno
c- Julie Christie, Away from Her
d- Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
e- Keira Knightley, Atonement
Alternative: Amy Adams, Enchanted instead of Keira Knightley.
This category has been pretty weak all year. There's nobody else in the run really. Amy Adams could be in if the Academy completely ignores Atonement.
Best Supporting Actor:
a- Casey Affleck, Jesse James
b- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
c- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
d- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
e- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alternative: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men instead of PSH.
IMO, Affleck, Holbrook, Bardem and Wilkinson are locks. Jones could get in, and maybe Paul Dano for There Will Be Blood. Max Von Sydow could be too if they really reward Diving Bell.
Best Supporting Actress:
a- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
b- Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
c- Jennifer Garner, Juno
d- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
e- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alternative: Catherine Keener, Into the Wild instead of Saoirse Ronan.
Ryan, Blanchett and Swinton are locks. There rest are all shaky but it'll be between these 6.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
a- Christopher Hampton, Atonement
b- Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
c- Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
d- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
e- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Alternative: Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War instead of Hampton.
Best Original Screnplay:
a- Brad Bird, Ratatouille
b- Diablo Cody, Juno
c- Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
d- Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
e- Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Alternative: Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl instead of Tamara Jenkins.
Best Animated Feature:
a- Persepolis
b- Ratatouille
c- The Simpsons Movie
).here are my predictions in the big categories:
Best Picture:
a- Atonement
b- Into the Wild
c- Michael Clayton
d- No Country for Old Men
e- There Will Be Blood
Alternative: Juno instead of Atonement or Into The Wild.
Leaving Juno out of the top 5 because I think its too small. Little Miss Sunshine was too last year but it was bigger than this one. Im probably wrong though. And Diving Bell and The Butterfly which has everybody in love but its foreign and I dont think it'll make it. Sweeney Todd has a very small chance too btu wont make it. And everybody is saying that Atonement is out of the race but I really dont think so. It has all the right ingredients except for the weird lack of SAG support or an Eddie (the very important Editing group) nom. Still, I think it's in.
Best Director:
a- Joe Wright, Atonement
b- Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
c- Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
d- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
e- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Alternative: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton instead of Joe Wright.
Gilroy is out of the top 5 because he's new. And Diving Bell has to show up somewhere (its not eligible for Best Foreign), so Schnabel will take Gilroy's place. The Academy has never supported Tim Burton so he wont make it.
Best Actor:
a- Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
b- Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
c- George Clooney, Michael Clayton
d- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
e- Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Alternative: Mathieu Amalric, Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Amalric is new, but he could get in if the Academy does show tons of love to Diving Bell. Denzel Washington could be in for American Gang, or Frank Langella for Starting out in the Evening. There's also James McAvoy for Atonement but the SAG didnt go for him and the Academy ignored him last year for Last King Of Scotland so I wouldnt count on him now either.
Best Actress:
a- Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
b- Ellen Page, Juno
c- Julie Christie, Away from Her
d- Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
e- Keira Knightley, Atonement
Alternative: Amy Adams, Enchanted instead of Keira Knightley.
This category has been pretty weak all year. There's nobody else in the run really. Amy Adams could be in if the Academy completely ignores Atonement.
Best Supporting Actor:
a- Casey Affleck, Jesse James
b- Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
c- Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
d- Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
e- Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Alternative: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men instead of PSH.
IMO, Affleck, Holbrook, Bardem and Wilkinson are locks. Jones could get in, and maybe Paul Dano for There Will Be Blood. Max Von Sydow could be too if they really reward Diving Bell.
Best Supporting Actress:
a- Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
b- Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
c- Jennifer Garner, Juno
d- Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
e- Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Alternative: Catherine Keener, Into the Wild instead of Saoirse Ronan.
Ryan, Blanchett and Swinton are locks. There rest are all shaky but it'll be between these 6.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
a- Christopher Hampton, Atonement
b- Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
c- Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
d- Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
e- Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Alternative: Aaron Sorkin, Charlie Wilson's War instead of Hampton.
Best Original Screnplay:
a- Brad Bird, Ratatouille
b- Diablo Cody, Juno
c- Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
d- Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
e- Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Alternative: Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl instead of Tamara Jenkins.
Best Animated Feature:
a- Persepolis
b- Ratatouille
c- The Simpsons Movie
S
Sir Calumn
Guest
Here are my nomination predictions, I've highlighted in red where the differentiate from Hakeem's
Best Picture
1. No Country For Old Men
2. Into The Wild
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Atonement
5. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
I still think Jesse James will sneak it over a mediocre Michael Clayton. I wont rule out Diving Belle and the Butterfly but I cant see it quite breaking in here.
Best Director
1. Joe Wright - Atonement
2. Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
3. Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
5. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Sadly I cant disagree with Hakeem at all here, though I think Burton and Cronenberg have outside chances. Believe it or not I'm also not ruling out Mangold for 3:10 to Yuma or Herzog for Rescue Dawn. Even Andrew Dominik is in with a chance.
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2. Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
3. Mathieu Amalric - Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
5. Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
To be honest when it comes to the academy I'd never rule out George Clooney, but I think Amalric may edge him out, DBATB needs recognition somewhere and we all know how much the academy loves people playing cripples.
Best Actress
1. Julie Delpy - Two Days in Paris
2. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby
3. Julie Christie - Away from Her
4. Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
5. Keira Knightley - Atonement
Weak, weak year. To be honest I'm pretty sure Keira will get the nom, but another possibility is Samantha Morton if her performance in Contol doesnt count as supporting, and also Ellen Page of course. I dont think Jolie will get in, however. Maybe Naomi Watts for Eastern Promises?
Best Supporting Actor
1. Casey Affleck - Jesse James
2. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
3. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
4. Max von Sydow - Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Really really hard one to call as there are so many possibles this year. I dont think PSH will make it - a kind of comedic role doesnt really fit in with the intensity of this years batch. I think Sydow may get the nod, they will be looking for places to fit Diving Bell in and Sydow has a very strong pedigree. Tommy Lee Jones is another possibility, and also I feel maybe Vincent Cassell for Eastern Promises is in with a chance.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
2. Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
3. Jennifer Garner - Juno
4. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
5. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Cant argue with the man here, I dont even think Keener will make it in.
Can't be bothered to do the screenplays, but will do my personal favourite...
Best Foreign Language Film
1. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2. Lust, Caution
3. Four Months, Three Weeks and Two Days
4. La Vie En Rose
5. The Countefeiters
I have to admit the Counterfeiters is more a personal hope than a prediction, I wouldnt at all be surprised if Two Days in Paris beats it.
Best Picture
1. No Country For Old Men
2. Into The Wild
3. There Will Be Blood
4. Atonement
5. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
I still think Jesse James will sneak it over a mediocre Michael Clayton. I wont rule out Diving Belle and the Butterfly but I cant see it quite breaking in here.
Best Director
1. Joe Wright - Atonement
2. Joel and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
3. Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
5. Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Sadly I cant disagree with Hakeem at all here, though I think Burton and Cronenberg have outside chances. Believe it or not I'm also not ruling out Mangold for 3:10 to Yuma or Herzog for Rescue Dawn. Even Andrew Dominik is in with a chance.
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
2. Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
3. Mathieu Amalric - Diving Bell and the Butterfly
4. Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
5. Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
To be honest when it comes to the academy I'd never rule out George Clooney, but I think Amalric may edge him out, DBATB needs recognition somewhere and we all know how much the academy loves people playing cripples.
Best Actress
1. Julie Delpy - Two Days in Paris
2. Maggie Gyllenhaal - Sherrybaby
3. Julie Christie - Away from Her
4. Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
5. Keira Knightley - Atonement
Weak, weak year. To be honest I'm pretty sure Keira will get the nom, but another possibility is Samantha Morton if her performance in Contol doesnt count as supporting, and also Ellen Page of course. I dont think Jolie will get in, however. Maybe Naomi Watts for Eastern Promises?
Best Supporting Actor
1. Casey Affleck - Jesse James
2. Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
3. Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
4. Max von Sydow - Diving Bell and the Butterfly
5. Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
Really really hard one to call as there are so many possibles this year. I dont think PSH will make it - a kind of comedic role doesnt really fit in with the intensity of this years batch. I think Sydow may get the nod, they will be looking for places to fit Diving Bell in and Sydow has a very strong pedigree. Tommy Lee Jones is another possibility, and also I feel maybe Vincent Cassell for Eastern Promises is in with a chance.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
2. Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
3. Jennifer Garner - Juno
4. Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
5. Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Cant argue with the man here, I dont even think Keener will make it in.
Can't be bothered to do the screenplays, but will do my personal favourite...
Best Foreign Language Film
1. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
2. Lust, Caution
3. Four Months, Three Weeks and Two Days
4. La Vie En Rose
5. The Countefeiters
I have to admit the Counterfeiters is more a personal hope than a prediction, I wouldnt at all be surprised if Two Days in Paris beats it.
good list.
Sherrybaby counts as a 2006 movie and Maggie was left out last year.
Two Days in Paris was a very good movie. really liked it even if it was way too much like Before Sunset.
As far for Best Foreign Language, La Vie En Rose and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly were sadly left out by France as they chose Persepolis as their entry this year. so those 2 are not eligible.
Four Months, Three Weeks and Two Days was left out by the Academy when they did the shortlist of final 15 2 weeks ago. And Im pretty sure that Lust, Caution is not eligible either
Sherrybaby counts as a 2006 movie and Maggie was left out last year.
Two Days in Paris was a very good movie. really liked it even if it was way too much like Before Sunset.
As far for Best Foreign Language, La Vie En Rose and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly were sadly left out by France as they chose Persepolis as their entry this year. so those 2 are not eligible.
Four Months, Three Weeks and Two Days was left out by the Academy when they did the shortlist of final 15 2 weeks ago. And Im pretty sure that Lust, Caution is not eligible either
S
Sir Calumn
Guest
Wow, I will never be able to fathom exactly why that category works the way it does
The nominations are in... and my best of the year Atonement got in the best pic race (no Keyra though) but my blind guess to actually win the Oscar, Sean Penn's Into The Wild got killed.
No Country and There Will Be Blood lead everybody with 8 noms each, and one of the will win the Oscar cause they are the only 2 best picture nominees also nominated for Best Editing.
No Country and There Will Be Blood lead everybody with 8 noms each, and one of the will win the Oscar cause they are the only 2 best picture nominees also nominated for Best Editing.
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