Election 2004 Prediction Thread

[Vagegast]

Post your predictions.


Who will win the Election?
Bush / Kerry


What will the electoral vote score?


Who'll control the Senate? What will be the margin?
Democrats / Republicans


Who'll control the House? What will be the margin?
Democrats / Republicans


Good luck!! I'm such a political nerd

 

[Lean]

I'm sad to say that i think Bush will win. Cant be arsed about the rest.

 

[hanek45]

I know **** about U.Ss politics and crap but I guess Kerry shall win..

you should have made a poll..

 

[Hyun]

hanek, read CAREFULLY. he want four opinions, not just one.

I'll post my prediction later than now.

 

[rhizome17]

Re: Election 2004 Prediction Thread

Originally posted by Vagegast
Post your predictions.


Who will win the Election?
Bush / Kerry


What will the electoral vote score?


Who'll control the Senate? What will be the margin?
Democrats / Republicans


Who'll control the House? What will be the margin?
Democrats / Republicans

I expect it will be a clean sweep for the Republicans. Maybe I am just jaded and disillusioned by all the morons I have heard interviewed, combined with the pathetic turnout in US elections, combined with the ridiculous Electoral College that doesn't guarantee the winner of the popular vote the Presidency.

And for once, I hope I am wrong.

 

[$teauA]

Kerry will win becas I had a dream about it .

 

[SRB]

you dream about kerry... ewwwww

 

[Elder]

Re: Re: Election 2004 Prediction Thread

Originally posted by rhizome17
I expect it will be a clean sweep for the Republicans. Maybe I am just jaded and disillusioned by all the morons I have heard interviewed, combined with the pathetic turnout in US elections, combined with the ridiculous Electoral College that doesn't guarantee the winner of the popular vote the Presidency.

And for once, I hope I am wrong.

Thank God the popular vote winner doesn't win the election. Are you nuts? Do you think we want LA and New York with their high populations running the entire country? No thanks.


The Republicans will pick up seats in the House and Senate and Bush will win the election by a larger margin than most people think.


Democrats have been losing ground ever since 1994 and the Republican takeover. The day will come when people like Brondby actually wake up and realize that Americans don't agree with their hate filled, class warfare agenda and will have to change it.

 

[ManU2000]

Originally posted by SRB
you dream about kerry... ewwwww

hahaha

Anyway, I agree with Rhizome, the Republicans are probably going to sweep everything. I'll do my part and vote for the Democrats and Kerry but I have my worries about how things will turn out. (:/)

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by ManU2000
hahaha

Anyway, I agree with Rhizome, the Republicans are probably going to sweep everything. I'll do my part and vote for the Democrats and Kerry but I have my worries about how things will turn out. (:/)

No need to lose sleep... the sweep is coming so just get ready for it... It's been happening for years now.

 

[SRB]

democrats are gonna take this one.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

Re: Election 2004 Prediction Thread

Post your predictions.


Who will win the Election?
Kerry


What will the electoral vote score?
Kerry will probably win with about 5 votes over the required amount.

Who'll control the Senate? What will be the margin?
Republicans, 52-47-1


Who'll control the House? What will be the margin?
Republicans, Same margin, probably little difference.


Groups like ACT, Punkvoter.org, and even non-partisan 501(c)(3) groups like New Voter's Project and P Diddy's group have been really registering the youth of the nation. With all due respect to the Republicans, people my age aren't going to ever vote for a conservative ideology. The Repubs are spending a lot of money on smear ads through 527s, but the Dems are really trying to get out the vote and as a result I think Kerry takes the election.

 

[Elder]

Re: Re: Election 2004 Prediction Thread

Originally posted by ShiftyPowers
Post your predictions.


Who will win the Election?
Kerry


What will the electoral vote score?
Kerry will probably win with about 5 votes over the required amount.

Who'll control the Senate? What will be the margin?
Republicans, 52-47-1


Who'll control the House? What will be the margin?
Republicans, Same margin, probably little difference.


Groups like ACT, Punkvoter.org, and even non-partisan 501(c)(3) groups like New Voter's Project and P Diddy's group have been really registering the youth of the nation. With all due respect to the Republicans, people my age aren't going to ever vote for a conservative ideology. The Repubs are spending a lot of money on smear ads through 527s, but the Dems are really trying to get out the vote and as a result I think Kerry takes the election.

Don't know how old you are, but as you get older you tend to become more conservative... after kids, having to pay real taxes, getting married, etc. etc. etc. The "youth" isn't going to go vote, they never do. They are jaded and don't think it matters much anyway.

Kerry loses.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

I'm 21, and I think the youth comes out to vote like crazy in this election.

 

[rhizome17]

Re: Re: Re: Election 2004 Prediction Thread

Originally posted by Elder
Thank God the popular vote winner doesn't win the election. Are you nuts? Do you think we want LA and New York with their high populations running the entire country? No thanks.

Given they are the majority of people who count as 'Americans', then in a democracy it makes sense. Any good libertarian wants to see democracy in action. If the majority of people select a candidate to represent them, then obviously that candidate should be the one representing them.

And as for becoming conservative the older you get.... talk about another gross generalisation.

 

[ShiftyPowers]

I would say that there definitely is a coorelation between age and conservatism.

The Electoral College made sense when access to media and information was a major problem in 1789. It made sense to vote for someone who could make the best decision on your behalf, an elector. The Electoral College is completely out of date now, and the arguments that support it now were not arguments supporting it when it was concieved. If we want to keep it, at least states should proportionally split their electoral votes.

 

[rhizome17]

Originally posted by ShiftyPowers
I would say that there definitely is a coorelation between age and conservatism.

I agree that there is a correlation, but I would argue that it is not the individual that becomes more conservative over time, rather the values they adhere to become conservative as they become dominant. Obviously there are exceptions and I wouldn't want to generalise across entire groups of people, but think of it like this:

It is no suprise that many of the 'hippy' generation of the 60's and 70's were also the ones at the forefront of the rise of the new right in the 80's. The things they were fighting for in the 60's, like individual freedom and liberties, freedom from an overbearing conservative state, freedom of expression etc. were 'liberal' values in that period. They are also the same values that underpin 'new right' ideologies - in other words those values shifted from being 'liberal' to being the values of the establishment. And hence the people themselves have moved from being 'perceived' as liberal to being perceived as conservatives as a new generation has a new set of battles.

The labels 'liberal' and 'conservative' are pretty vacuous terms when they are divorced from their historical context and their expression in social relations. Unfortunately (but not unexpectedly) they have become hijacked for political agendas, which is why I am happy to resist applying them to myself. I leave that for others to do.

 

[Elder]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Election 2004 Prediction Thread

Originally posted by rhizome17
Given they are the majority of people who count as 'Americans', then in a democracy it makes sense. Any good libertarian wants to see democracy in action. If the majority of people select a candidate to represent them, then obviously that candidate should be the one representing them.

And as for becoming conservative the older you get.... talk about another gross generalisation.

Being the genious that you are Mr. Rhizome, you would know that the United States isn't a direct democracy. I don't believe that direct democracy works, and I wouldn't advise any country to use it. It is not right for the lazy people of a society to be able to vote themsleves money in the form of government handouts from those who are not... once the electorate finds out they can plunder the middle and upper class just by voting, the country is done for.

And typically people become more conservative the older they get... if you don't know that, you've been hiding under a rock.

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by ShiftyPowers
I would say that there definitely is a coorelation between age and conservatism.

The Electoral College made sense when access to media and information was a major problem in 1789. It made sense to vote for someone who could make the best decision on your behalf, an elector. The Electoral College is completely out of date now, and the arguments that support it now were not arguments supporting it when it was concieved. If we want to keep it, at least states should proportionally split their electoral votes.

So you think that 2 states who have huge populations that are very left should be able to swing an election for the other 48 states? Our system works just fine. If a candidate only had to get a popular vote, at least 40 states would be completely ignored in an election.

 

[Sir Calumn]

I'm pretty sure Bush is gonna win the overall election. Leaders arent voted out over things like the Iraq war, they can piss people off but in the end it's always the economy. I dont know what unemployment, inflation and consumer spending is like over in the US but I'm pretty sure I would have heard about it if anything was drastically wrong, and even though the dollar is so weak at the moment, I still cant see it proving enough to cause any real swing. Couple that with the fact Kerry is bloody awful, and only a marginally better alternative to Bush, and I cant see a change, and I think the margin will be quite small but no-where near small enough to cause any real controversy. I also thing the Republicans will have control of the house and senate. As for the other stuff, I dont know enough to comment.