Italy qualify if... Saturday 19 June, 2004
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The situation in Group C is now extremely complicated and even a 3-0 victory over Bulgaria might not be enough to see Italy through to the Quarter-Finals.
Giovanni Trapattoni’s men must beat already eliminated Bulgaria in order to have any hope of catching the leading Scandinavian pair, but there are several different results that could put a spanner in the works.
If either Denmark or Sweden win, then Italy would progress in second place with five points and the winning side would top the Group on six.
However, if that game ends in a draw, then all three teams are on five points and UEFA’s rules go through a series of criteria to decide who qualifies.
The only results that count would be those played between these teams, therefore discounting the scorelines against Bulgaria.
As all three matches ended in a draw, the goal difference in these games would also be equal.
UEFA then analyses the goals scored in these encounters, which is why the result of the Denmark-Sweden game is so crucial – it is the only one that can be changed.
Italy scored once in their meetings with the Scandinavians, as have Sweden, while so far Denmark are on 0.
A 0-0 draw would therefore see the Azzurri safely through, as Denmark would remain a goal behind them in this miniature table.
A 1-1 draw would put Sweden out in front, while Italy and Denmark are level on one goal apiece. Here, UEFA turns to the goal difference throughout the entire Group phase, so Trapattoni’s team must beat Bulgaria 2-0 to be sure of matching Denmark’s record.
At this stage, the UEFA coefficient comes into play. The Azzurri again have the upper hand with a rating of 2.31 compared to 2.05 for the Danes.
However, a draw between the Scandinavian neighbours with four goals or more would automatically eliminate Italy regardless of their result against Bulgaria.
The Azzurri qualify if Italy beat Bulgaria and:
1) either Denmark or Sweden win
2) Denmark and Sweden draw 0-0
3) Denmark and Sweden draw 1-1 and Italy beat Bulgaria by two clear goals
Italy go out if:
1) Italy fail to beat Bulgaria
2) Denmark and Sweden draw 2-2 or above
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