S
Sir Calumn
Guest
The speculation was finally ended the other day when Tony Blair formally asked the Queen to disolve parliment and called the General Election for May 5th 2005. Campaigning wont seriously begin until Monday, when the whole Royal Wedding and Pope's Funeral business is all over and done with, but when it does you can be sure they'll come straight in with the big guns and we'll hear about pretty much nothing else. What do you think's going to happen, and who will you vote for/would you like to vote for?
I personally think we're going to have an election which is far more close and tougher to call then any of the previous elections for the past couple of decades. The conservatives have finally got their act together and formed a proper opposition, plus the Liberal Democrats are ever on the increase, and even some of the little parties have a few chances which could serve to make things interesting. I still think Tony Blair and the Labour Government are going to win it. Michael Howard has done a fantastic job unifying the Tories under him, but he is not the sort of charismatic, enthusiastic leader the public would like to vote for, and has had too many problems to handle, which although handled well, seem to knock him back whenever he's getting ahead. The whole Howard Flight business, though completely insignificant, took the media coverage off his main drive, as did that MP who switched sides. If only Howard had come in earlier, instead of Iain Duncan Smith, unified the party then made way for a charismatic leader like William Hague or Michael Portillo, I would have thought they could take it, but it all happened just a bit too late.
However, if Blair wins, what will his majority will be like? If he's stuck on a John Major like majority, 20 seats or whatever it was, which could well happen, he's really screwed and will almost certainly step down for Gordon Brown in a couple of years. With the extreme possibility of the idiotic 'war is bad, love and peace, oooo dont hurt the little foxes' middle class pricks using this election as a chance to give Blair a bitchslappin', we could find ourselves with a Labour Goverment with such a tiny majority that nothing happens and things go to hell. Howard really is having a go at traditional Labour voters with his Immigration and Gypsy policies, and some safe Labour constituants could be in for a very unexpected time of worrying. Also, in the Conservatives favour, thanks to Robert Killroy-Sacked, UKIP and the rest of the extreme right are no longer a serious entity, so they shouldnt loose the ground to these parties which was expected after the European MEP elections. All this, plus the severe damage done to Blair's public image, really does open the door s for a close, unpredictable election which may go right to the wire.
There would be absolutely no point in me voting as I live in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country, but I think I would like Labour to win. I am, by nature, a conservative, however I feel it would be impossible for the tories to win with a majority decent enough to do anything, so I would rather an able Labour Government than an unable Tory one, plus I hate Michael Howard with a passion. I very much approved of Blair's handling of the Iraq war, and with any luck he will oust that fat twat Gordon Brown in the enxt reshuffle and bring someone in to get the economy in order, I didnt like Brown's handling of it, but I dont think the Conservatives (is it Redwood who's Shadow Chancellor?) will do any better, so this is an area I would be happy to go with Labour on. Blair had cut immigration by a helleva lot, so I think I would be happy to stick with him on that, indeed, the only really massive positive the conservatives offer is the Euro-Scepticism, however if the likely happens and France votes No on the EU constitution (all 9 estimate polls say a majority will vote no), as a protest to Chiraque if nothing else, that will help feed my Euro hatred anyway, even though we wont then get a chance to trounce the referendum here in Britain.
So, in summary, I predict a tight Labour victory with a majority of around 50 seats, and significant gains to the Conservative and Liberal Democrats. The only other party I can see winning any constituancy is Respect: The Unity Coalition which should retain Galloway's seat and maybe take one of that Oona Williams girl.
I personally think we're going to have an election which is far more close and tougher to call then any of the previous elections for the past couple of decades. The conservatives have finally got their act together and formed a proper opposition, plus the Liberal Democrats are ever on the increase, and even some of the little parties have a few chances which could serve to make things interesting. I still think Tony Blair and the Labour Government are going to win it. Michael Howard has done a fantastic job unifying the Tories under him, but he is not the sort of charismatic, enthusiastic leader the public would like to vote for, and has had too many problems to handle, which although handled well, seem to knock him back whenever he's getting ahead. The whole Howard Flight business, though completely insignificant, took the media coverage off his main drive, as did that MP who switched sides. If only Howard had come in earlier, instead of Iain Duncan Smith, unified the party then made way for a charismatic leader like William Hague or Michael Portillo, I would have thought they could take it, but it all happened just a bit too late.
However, if Blair wins, what will his majority will be like? If he's stuck on a John Major like majority, 20 seats or whatever it was, which could well happen, he's really screwed and will almost certainly step down for Gordon Brown in a couple of years. With the extreme possibility of the idiotic 'war is bad, love and peace, oooo dont hurt the little foxes' middle class pricks using this election as a chance to give Blair a bitchslappin', we could find ourselves with a Labour Goverment with such a tiny majority that nothing happens and things go to hell. Howard really is having a go at traditional Labour voters with his Immigration and Gypsy policies, and some safe Labour constituants could be in for a very unexpected time of worrying. Also, in the Conservatives favour, thanks to Robert Killroy-Sacked, UKIP and the rest of the extreme right are no longer a serious entity, so they shouldnt loose the ground to these parties which was expected after the European MEP elections. All this, plus the severe damage done to Blair's public image, really does open the door s for a close, unpredictable election which may go right to the wire.
There would be absolutely no point in me voting as I live in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country, but I think I would like Labour to win. I am, by nature, a conservative, however I feel it would be impossible for the tories to win with a majority decent enough to do anything, so I would rather an able Labour Government than an unable Tory one, plus I hate Michael Howard with a passion. I very much approved of Blair's handling of the Iraq war, and with any luck he will oust that fat twat Gordon Brown in the enxt reshuffle and bring someone in to get the economy in order, I didnt like Brown's handling of it, but I dont think the Conservatives (is it Redwood who's Shadow Chancellor?) will do any better, so this is an area I would be happy to go with Labour on. Blair had cut immigration by a helleva lot, so I think I would be happy to stick with him on that, indeed, the only really massive positive the conservatives offer is the Euro-Scepticism, however if the likely happens and France votes No on the EU constitution (all 9 estimate polls say a majority will vote no), as a protest to Chiraque if nothing else, that will help feed my Euro hatred anyway, even though we wont then get a chance to trounce the referendum here in Britain.
So, in summary, I predict a tight Labour victory with a majority of around 50 seats, and significant gains to the Conservative and Liberal Democrats. The only other party I can see winning any constituancy is Respect: The Unity Coalition which should retain Galloway's seat and maybe take one of that Oona Williams girl.
My family was hit hard during the 80's by the Conservatives rape of the working classes. It'll be a dark day for Britain if they get back in. 
