Election 2004 Prediction Thread

[Vagegast]

Originally posted by ShiftyPowers
Also I think it's a little known quirk of the Constitution that in the event that the Electoral College cannot decide on a winner the House elects a President, but it is not like any other House vote. 1 state = 1 vote. So to be honest, it's probably unclear who would win the election, since a lot of the Republican States have almost entirely Republican Representatives owing to the Republican majority in the House. If someone wants to go through it all and find out who would win, go for it, it's majority rules of the House members of a state. Unless that's been changed, but I don't think it has; maybe though.

If there is a tie, like you said, each of the 50 states get one vote. The states' votes will be determined by that particular state's House delegation. If the delegation can't decide because it is evenly divided, the state loses its vote. A candidate needs the vote of 26 states to win.

What does that mean for this election? In the House, Republicans control 30 of the states' delegation versus 16 by Democrats and 4 evenly tied.

And there is a precedent for this. There was an EV-tie in 1800. The House voted for Jefferson after 36 rounds of voting and his opponent Burr became vice-Prez. (Four years later he killed Alexander Hamilton in a duel How Zell Miller must envy those days ). Than the 12th amendment was passed. It happened again in 1828, but this time it wasn't a tie; nobody gained a majority of the EV votes. The House chose Adams over Carlos*son.

(And that's all the research I will do today...)

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by ShiftyPowers
Unfortunately their "hard news coverage" is about 1 hour a day.

Thats not true. They, as well as most cable news nets run hard news at the beginning of each hour, as well as the middle of the house. Then at 6 they do their Special Report show. That show is one hour, and has about 20 minutes of opinion at the end. CBS, NBC, and ABC run 30 minute news shows at 6:30 or 7:00. So it's quite in line with the major networks. Difference is, Fox gets about 1 million viewers for it's Special Report show while the other networks get multi millions.

But Fox is the threat to news...

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by Brondbyfan
Actually, that's not a Drudge story, he just stole it from NBCNews, as he says in there. And of course, because he is a Bush operative, he covers up what NBC actually said, which is "It remains unclear, however, how extensively the U.S. forces searched the site in the immediate aftermath of the invasion to topple Saddam Hussein." It's terrible logic anyway. The looting never would have happened if Bush hadn't invaded Iraq. And why did he take so long to secure it, if this is even true, which NBC is not certain of. So yes, it's Bush's fault. And that's what I said: this shatters the myth that the Iraq War made us safer. Thanks to Bush, there are more terrorists in Iraq, and now they have 380 tons of high explosive.

All this proved is that Drudge is liar and a hack. He stole an NBC story, and then took out important information and doctored it to support Bush.

You're such a tool. When will you ever admit your wrong? Drudge posted a story from NBC, and you still call him a liar.

Loser.

 

[Brondbyfan]

Actually, he posted a story from NBC which he edited to make it look like it was better for Bush than it actually was. It's akin to be claiming the Bible says "Thou shalt . . . kill." You can make a story say anything with dishonest editing if you're that scummy. Where does Drudge point out the critical line from the NBC story, which you probably did not look up, that says they don't know how extensively the military searched the complex at that time? The answer is that he doesn't. And why is it that Drudge doesn't provide a link to the NBC story? Well it's quite obvious - he doesn't want people to know that he doctored the story. How do you respond to that?

Here is the real story, which Drudge and Elder tried to hide to cover up their deception:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6323933/

http://www.herald-sun.com/nationworld/international/27-536548.html

And here are choice quotes:

Reporter embedded with the troops - “There wasn’t a search . . . The mission that the brigade had was to get to Baghdad. That was more of a pit stop there for us. And, you know, the searching, I mean certainly some of the soldiers headed off on their own, looked through the bunkers just to look at the vast amount of ordnance lying around . . . But as far as we could tell, there was no move to secure the weapons, nothing to keep looters away."

"It remains unclear, however, how extensively the U.S. forces searched the site in the immediate aftermath of the invasion to topple Saddam Hussein."

"At the Pentagon, an official who monitors developments in Iraq said U.S.-led coalition troops had searched Al-Qaqaa in the immediate aftermath of the March 2003 invasion and confirmed that the explosives, which had been under IAEA seal since 1991, were intact. The site was not secured by U.S. forces, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity."

So Drudge is proven, once again, to be a Bush operative. And Elder is proven, once again, to be either Drudge's equally dishonest partner in crime, or to just be an incredibly gullible Bush supporter who keeps falling for Drudge's lies over and over again.

 

[Vagegast]

Originally posted by Elder
So it's quite in line with the major networks.

You forgot the affiliate news reporting which is mostly local but it also covers national and international events. They're in the morning for about 2 hours. Than it's the morning shows which has a total of 10-30 minutes of news. Than there's the 12 o'clock news. Afternoon, starting at either 4 or 5. Than at 11, etc.

 

[rhizome17]

Originally posted by TOON ARMY
You've hit the nail on the head, rhizome.

Yes, well, it is pretty obvious that Elder runs into trouble once he starts speculating on things outside of his immediate line of sight.

If anything, it just goes to show that we know more about what is going on in the US than some of them know about the rest of the world. 'Blair is toast' pretty much sums up how much Elder really knows what is going on. Not a heck of alot.

 

[Vagegast]

MSNBC, 10/26/04 (Transcript):

Amy Robach: And it's still unclear exactly when those explosives disappeared. Here to help shed some light on that question is Lai Ling. She was part of an NBC news crew that traveled to that facility with the 101st Airborne Division back in April of 2003. Lai Ling, can you set the stage for us? What was the situation like when you went into the area?

Lai Ling Jew: When we went into the area, we were actually leaving Karbala and we were initially heading to Baghdad with the 101st Airborne, Second Brigade. The situation in Baghdad, the Third Infantry Division had taken over Baghdad and so they were trying to carve up the area that the 101st Airborne Division would be in charge of. As a result, they had trouble figuring out who was going to take up what piece of Baghdad. They sent us over to this area in Iskanderia. We didn't know it as the Qaqaa facility at that point but when they did bring us over there we stayed there for quite a while. We stayed overnight, almost 24 hours. And we walked around, we saw the bunkers that had been bombed, and that exposed all of the ordinances that just lied dormant on the desert.

AR: Was there a search at all underway or did a search ensue for explosives once you got there during that 24-hour period?

LLJ: No. There wasn't a search. The mission that the brigade had was to get to Baghdad. That was more of a pit stop there for us. And, you know, the searching, I mean certainly some of the soldiers head off on their own, looked through the bunkers just to look at the vast amount of ordnance lying around. But as far as we could tell, there was no move to

secure the weapons, nothing to keep looters away. But there was – at that point the roads were shut off. So it would have been very difficult, I believe, for the looters to get there.

AR: And there was no talk of securing the area after you left. There was no discussion of that?

LLJ: Not for the 101st Airborne, Second Brigade. They were -- once they were in Baghdad, it was all about Baghdad, you know, and then they ended up moving north to Mosul. Once we left the area, that was the last that the brigade had anything to do with the area.

AR: Well, Lai Ling Jew, thank you so much for shedding some light into that situation. We appreciate it.

LLJ: Thank you.

Lay Ling Jew what a name... "I got a problem in my country (8)

 

[Brondbyfan]

Originally posted by rhizome17
'Blair is toast' pretty much sums up how much Elder really knows what is going on. Not a heck of alot.

Don't forget his assertion that Europe is somehow on the verge of bankruptcy.

But we shouldn't be so hard on him, maybe he read about Blair's imminent downfall and Europe's dire situation from Drudge.

 

[rhizome17]

I was tempted to suggest earlier that Elder's girlfriend (The Elderess?) moving to the US may have raised the average IQ of both countries, but given she is the source of his information on Blair I am not so sure.


Just jigging Elder, don't take it personal

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by Vagegast
MSNBC, 10/26/04 (Transcript):Lay Ling Jew what a name... "I got a problem in my country (8)

From CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/26/iraq.explosives/index.html

"While the troops found large stockpiles of conventional explosives, they did NOT find HMX or RDX, the types of powerful explosives that reportedly went missing, according to NBC."

<Emphasis mine>

As I pointed out before, I am willing to wait a few days to see what the truth actually is.

Regarding Brondby's post about Drudge not having a link. As of last night there was no link to a transcript of the show. I searched for it myself when I posted the story.

Either way, just sit back and watch what happens. Don't be so quick to jump off the cliff with the rest of your sheep like followers.

 

[Vagegast]

To say Elder doesn't always tell the truth is like saying the Titanic had a bit of a leak

The reason I think Blair is still alive and kicking is two-fold: 1) the incomtency of the conservatives 2) the way xenophobia has been transforming British politics. The Conservative Party is basically so in-ept that UKIP has no problem hemorrhaging votes away from them. The UKIP is actually helping Blair win despite Blair's massive tribulations on Iraq.

 

[Brondbyfan]

What exactly are you waiting to see? Bottom line: those explosives were locked up before the Iraq War. After Bush rushed to war, they are God only knows where. And whether they were stolen one year, one month, or one week after the invasion doesn't alter that. The Iraq War did not make us safer. Bush has not made us safer.

My more pressing question is, how can you continue to defend Drudge now that it's incredibly obvious that he doctored the NBC story?

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by Brondbyfan
Don't forget his assertion that Europe is somehow on the verge of bankruptcy.

But we shouldn't be so hard on him, maybe he read about Blair's imminent downfall and Europe's dire situation from Drudge.

Do you know anything about the economies of European countries? Do you know anything about Germany and the need for pension reform? The reforms of France in regards to labor unions? The economies of Europe are not that great... Considering they have very little in regards to a budget for a national defense, that just shouldn't be happening.

I would rather get my news from Drudge than moveon.org or the democratic underground like you do.

By the way, can you tell me who broke the Bush was caught drunk driving story back in 2000? I want to see how smart you are...

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by Brondbyfan
What exactly are you waiting to see? Bottom line: those explosives were locked up before the Iraq War. After Bush rushed to war, they are God only knows where. And whether they were stolen one year, one month, or one week after the invasion doesn't alter that. The Iraq War did not make us safer. Bush has not made us safer.

My more pressing question is, how can you continue to defend Drudge now that it's incredibly obvious that he doctored the NBC story?

Take a look at the CNN story about the heavy explosives not even being there when they arrived. Those are the explosives that the whole story is based on.

You want to me to start ragging you about doctored stories you still think are real? Or should I just leave CBS out of this one for today? You really show your mindlessness in posts like the last one.

 

[Brondbyfan]

Originally posted by Elder
Do you know anything about the economies of European countries? Do you know anything about Germany and the need for pension reform? The reforms of France in regards to labor unions? The economies of Europe are not that great... Considering they have very little in regards to a budget for a national defense, that just shouldn't be happening.

I would rather get my news from Drudge than moveon.org or the democratic underground like you do.

By the way, can you tell me who broke the Bush was caught drunk driving story back in 2000? I want to see how smart you are...

You said liberal European countries were on the verge of bankruptcy because of liberalism. But the Nordic countries have 4 of the top 6 most vibrant economies in the world, and it doesn't get much more liberal and social-democratic than Scandinavia, does it? You lied. Also, in case you'd had your head up the Republican talking points for the last 4 years, America's economy has been dismal because of a conservative government.

And yes, I do know who broke the DUI story. It was Erin Fehlau of WPXT-TV of Portland, Maine. But I know how you're going to spin and lie here, so here's the truth for everyone.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/07/23/fox_dui/index_np.html

None of the real (read: not from Drudge) stories claimed the weapons were "missing," as the Drudge lie goes. What they said was that there were either no searches or incomplete searches which did not find the weapons. Drudge is still alive thanks to gullible partisans with disdain for the truth like you.

 

[Vagegast]

Originally posted by Elder
By the way, can you tell me who broke the Bush was caught drunk driving story back in 2000?

A local Fox affiliate. You know, the one not owned by Roger Ailes.

Kevin Kelly, news director of WPXT, a Fox television affiliate station in Portland, Maine, said his station broke the story after one of its reporters learned of the arrest while covering an unrelated matter at the local courthouse.

"Somebody made a reference to it," Kelly said. The reporter followed up with phone calls, including one to the Maine Department of Secretary of State. Kelly said the department responded with a fax that detailed the 1976 arrest. Kelly said the reporter also talked to the arresting officer, who verified the incident.

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/02/bush.dui/

 

[Brondbyfan]

True this Vagegast. Also, check out the link I gave (you can get a free day pass). It shows how FOX News (the one that IS controlled by Ailes) tried to cover the story up once it was broken.

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by Brondbyfan
You said liberal European countries were on the verge of bankruptcy because of liberalism. But the Nordic countries have 4 of the top 6 most vibrant economies in the world, and it doesn't get much more liberal and social-democratic than Scandinavia, does it? You lied. Also, in case you'd had your head up the Republican talking points for the last 4 years, America's economy has been dismal because of a conservative government.

And yes, I do know who broke the DUI story. It was Erin Fehlau of WPXT-TV of Portland, Maine. But I know how you're going to spin and lie here, so here's the truth for everyone.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/07/23/fox_dui/index_np.html

None of the real (read: not from Drudge) stories claimed the weapons were "missing," as the Drudge lie goes. What they said was that there were either no searches or incomplete searches which did not find the weapons. Drudge is still alive thanks to gullible partisans with disdain for the truth like you.

You like the word "lied" don't you? I don't take it personally because you have a habit of doing it yourself and then not admitting it. So I don't take much of what you say seriously anyway.

As for the "Nordic" countries. I am pretty sure they consider themselves Nordic, or at least Scandanavian before they consider themselves "European." They all have very small populations as well...

America's economy has not been "dismal" the past 4 years. That's the problem with you. You only see things from a negative side. That's why your party and those you support tend to lose most elections these days. Americans are generally optomistic and that is something you are osrely lacking.

*waits for Kerry and Edwards talking points from Brondby about "Two Americas" and "Tax the Rich"*

Foxnews broke the drunk driving story nationally....

And again, read the CNN article. Oh wait, just skip it. There's no convincing a slave to the democratic party like you.

 

[Elder]

Originally posted by Vagegast
A local Fox affiliate. You know, the one not owned by Roger Ailes.http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/02/bush.dui/

And then Foxnews broke it nationally. Damn those right wingers trying to influence an election!

 

[Elder]

This is a funny link to Slate online.

It's a little tally of the people who work there and who they are voting for. I know that Slate is considered quite left, but holy ****!!

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108714/