After todays stage, I think that the race winner will come from one of three (possibly four) riders..
Valverde looks solid in the mountains and can time trial.
Evans looks quite strong in the mountains, and can time trial.
Kloden is riding very solidly, and I think along with Cancellara is the best time trialler in the field. If he had a team riding for him from the start then he'd be an either bigger chance...As it is he has a minute to make up on Evans and Valverde.
Contador I think is the strongest climber in the pack. Or if not neccesarily the strongest, he has the sharpest acceleration up the hills. So I think he is the only other threat, but will need some time before the time trials (hence I only think he is half a chance)...
I dont think Rasmussen's race as a gc rider will last past the time trial in a couple of days time. Sastre already losing a minute to Evans and co, with both time trials still to come isn't looking great. Mayo looked shakey today, and will lose a fair chunk on the ITTs aswell...
I think Valverde and Evans will be neck and neck in the time trial, chasing the yellow jersey in a few days. I can't see Kloden gettng the minute or so he needs off them in one time trial...Then it'll be a matter of defending it in the hills. And theyve both looked really good. I couldnt believe Evans acceleration to go with Contadors first move today. But Valverde has been persistant in the early mountains too...
If I HAD to back a winner now, Id probably JUST say Valverde...Simply because he has a stronger team, and if Cadel gets in yellow itll be harder for him to hold it (esp. with so many contenders), and I think the minute Kloden has already lost will come back to haunt him...But we should remember, take out Perieros one big break last year, and take out Landis, and Kloden and Evans were the top two in last years race too